So, John C. Dvorak has launched an article about Eight signs that Microsoft is dead in the water. As usual, it was posted on Slashdot’s front page and, as usual, the masses of trolls and Slashdot pundits have come out of their closets to bash Dvorak into tiny pieces without giving his writing a single ounce of credit. While I agree that he is a sensationalist writer, often makes wild speculations and insights, you can usually glean at least a few nuggets, if not a new perspective, on the topic he is addressing. The other thing I find is that he often says what my collegues and I are saying around the water cooler anyway, and although it’s generally a rehash, it’s refreshing to read it in print.

I’d like to comment a bit more fully on some of his points that he brings up:

1. Vista OS – This is the thorn in the side of MS now and everyone knows it. The F/OSS crowd is bent over sideways laughing about it, you can hear Allchin grinding his teeth all the way over here in Iowa, and the news releases about what’s wrong or what’s been taken out of it now are amusing industry professionals on a regular basis. When it comes out, if it ever does, it will be hailed with an attitude of, “Amazing that it made it!” sort of attitude, not a “when are we going to implement it” perspective. IT managers — if you are even THINKING about Vista, you’re wasting your time. Nothing to see here, move on. I guarantee by the time its relevant, you will have had lots of warning. And for right now, its relevance is about the same level as the color of Uma Thurman’s toothbrush.

2. Office 2007 – The cry I’m hearing in the industry more and more is, “Why upgrade my Office Suite? What has it done for me lately?” Personally, I had Office 2003 installed on my PC when it came new, just because it was new, and almost immediately removed it in favor of Office 2000. It sucked so bad, dustbunnies in the next county were shrieking in dismay. Look, MS, you really don’t need more features in a typing program. I want to write documents. Just documents. Not documents with pictures, movies, soundclips, albums, frames, viewing transmissions, explosion graphs, temperature gauges, and motorized pleasure buttons. Just documents. Why not release something like, “Office Kickass 2006 — The Office Suite that never crashes, never leaks memory, and always works.” HA! I jest, of course.
3. MSN – Agreed on his position of “MS is not a marketing company — they should not be selling ads”. However, I also see that as a round-about sort of way of MS buying ads. They’re selling ads because when they do, they’re exposing themselves to advertisement. It’s a matter of soaking the MS brand into every nook and cranny possible. Frankly, as far as raw advertisement goes, Coca-Cola and Apple have them beat, hands down, and always have.

   As a medium, MSN is working for the dumb masses, just like AOL. If it wasn’t AOL, or MSN, it’d be something else. The idiots of the world need Hotmail so they stay out of the meaningful part of the Internet. I’m just thankful that MS chooses to host and coddle all of them. Now if we could only get them to block all outside transmissions, we’d be 1000% better off.

4. MSN Search Engine – Ad selling, like Dvorak said. Plus, who’s going to switch? I’m not. You’re not. Our addiction to Google is here, now, and real. Sure, if Google starts to suck I’ll go elsewhere. But guess what: It’s not sucking, it isn’t likely to start sucking, so I’m not trusting anyone else.

   Tell you what, MS. Just set your MSN Search Engine to return links to Hotmail, MySpace, LiveJournal, TeenMagazine.com, and HotMonkeySex.org for each and every search and you’ll probably get a 98% hit rate with the audience you’re peddling this to.

5. Xbox360 – Unfortunately the company did not foresee the Sony delays and failed to manufacture enough units to satisfy the demand. I have no response to this except, “Oh….my….holy….????”
6. Pad-based computing – Question: Who didn’t know that this was a bust when it first came out? Have you ever tried to use a pad computer? It’s like trying to have sex with your dick wrapped up in an egg beater. You can do it, but it requires some impressive acrobatics and it’s just not fun in the end.
7. Dot Net initiative – When this came out I was still young enough and immature enough to ooh and aah at the idea of a massively, inter-related development, deployment, and operational system such as this. Now I know enough to grab another cold beer and chalk .NET up to another raving success like Java was. .NOT
8. Preoccupation with Google This old-lady-like skittishness is unbecoming for a company this size. == Funniest line I’ve read today. I don’t think that MS’s preoccupation with Google is incorrect; however, HOW they are responding to Google is. It’s turning into a dick-waving contest and MS isn’t spry enough to make the moves necessary to keep on top. Google is still small enough to be nimble and brave; MS has a great corporate structure, but to borrow a line from The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, “Looks like a fish, moves like a fish, steers like a cow.” It takes time to move the bulk. Good on MS for competing, but get a different strategy for the love of Mike.

In the end, I have to agree with Dvorak when he says that nothing good has come out of MS in ages. It used to create new and exciting OS enhancements and software that people could take to bed and romance for ages after its release, but nowadays it is either a) playing catchup, b) trying something of the same old thing or c) coming out with things so random and useless it makes market critics boggle at the piles of scathing writing material available to them. Time for a lot of breaths of fresh air or at least a new mission.